NHL Equivalency and Prospect Projection Models: Analyzing the 2021 Draft Class (Part 4)

How Powerful is This Draft Class?

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  1. Include all players who played at least 5 games in one league in their draft year, but use the output from the model which incorporated a player’s draft-1 and draft years if they played both.
  2. Compare the total number of projected stars and projected NHLers in this year’s draft class to those in every other draft class since 2007.
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Draft Year ║ Projected Stars ║ Projected NHLers
╠════════════╬═════════════════╬══════════════════╣
║ 2007 ║ 12.76 ║ 48.25 ║
║ 2008 ║ 12.93 ║ 50.74 ║
║ 2009 ║ 15.83 ║ 53.91 ║
║ 2010 ║ 16.08 ║ 56.03 ║
║ 2011 ║ 14.27 ║ 55.64 ║
║ 2012 ║ 11.39 ║ 47.52 ║
║ 2013 ║ 16.89 ║ 56.04 ║
║ 2014 ║ 14.39 ║ 52.22 ║
║ 2015 ║ 15.02 ║ 58.88 ║
║ 2016 ║ 15.89 ║ 55.44 ║
║ 2017 ║ 12.47 ║ 51.55 ║
║ 2018 ║ 13.02 ║ 49.67 ║
║ 2019 ║ 13.02 ║ 49.38 ║
║ 2020 ║ 15.76 ║ 51.72 ║
║ 2021 ║ 10.46 ║ 39.21 ║
╚════════════╩═════════════════╩══════════════════╝
  • Connor Lockhart: 0.4% star probability, 1.3% NHLer probability.
  • Artyom Grushnikov: 0.1% star probability, 0.8% NHLer probability.
  • Colby Saganiuk: 0.1% star probability, 0.2% NHLer probability.

Making the Most of a Bad Situation

At the conclusion of my last article, I stated that the rate at which a defenseman scores as a prospect is very important, and I greatly recommended against using high draft picks on defensemen who aren’t proficient scorers.